Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals
2026-06-16 · Busch Stadium
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on 2026-06-16. Predicted final score: San Diego Padres 4.95, St. Louis Cardinals 5.33. Model win probability: St. Louis Cardinals 55%, San Diego Padres 45%. Projected total runs: 10.28.
San Diego Padres
5.0
Predicted runs
45% to win
St. Louis Cardinals
5.3
Predicted runs
55% to win
Projected total: 10.3 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.