Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
2026-08-04 · Chase Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on 2026-08-04. Predicted final score: San Diego Padres 4.54, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.78. Model win probability: Arizona Diamondbacks 53%, San Diego Padres 47%. Projected total runs: 9.32.
San Diego Padres
4.5
Predicted runs
47% to win
Arizona Diamondbacks
4.8
Predicted runs
53% to win
Projected total: 9.3 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.