Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
2026-08-05 · Chase Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on 2026-08-05. Predicted final score: San Diego Padres 5.07, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.55. Model win probability: Arizona Diamondbacks 46%, San Diego Padres 54%. Projected total runs: 9.62.
San Diego Padres
5.1
Predicted runs
54% to win
Arizona Diamondbacks
4.5
Predicted runs
46% to win
Projected total: 9.6 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.