Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
2026-05-04 · Oracle Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on 2026-05-04. Predicted final score: San Diego Padres 4.27, San Francisco Giants 5.08. Model win probability: San Francisco Giants 59%, San Diego Padres 41%. Projected total runs: 9.35.
San Diego Padres
4.3
Predicted runs
41% to win
San Francisco Giants
5.1
Predicted runs
59% to win
Projected total: 9.3 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.