Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
2026-08-11 · Busch Stadium
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on 2026-08-11. Predicted final score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.44, St. Louis Cardinals 3.94. Model win probability: St. Louis Cardinals 35%, Philadelphia Phillies 65%. Projected total runs: 9.38.
Philadelphia Phillies
5.4
Predicted runs
65% to win
St. Louis Cardinals
3.9
Predicted runs
35% to win
Projected total: 9.4 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.