Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
2026-07-28 · loanDepot park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on 2026-07-28. Predicted final score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.31, Miami Marlins 3.97. Model win probability: Miami Marlins 46%, Philadelphia Phillies 54%. Projected total runs: 8.28.
Philadelphia Phillies
4.3
Predicted runs
54% to win
Miami Marlins
4.0
Predicted runs
46% to win
Projected total: 8.3 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.