Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres
2026-05-25 · Petco Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres at Petco Park on 2026-05-25. Predicted final score: Philadelphia Phillies 3.96, San Diego Padres 4.09. Model win probability: San Diego Padres 52%, Philadelphia Phillies 48%. Projected total runs: 8.05.
Philadelphia Phillies
4.0
Predicted runs
48% to win
San Diego Padres
4.1
Predicted runs
52% to win
Projected total: 8.1 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.