Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
2026-05-15 · 06:40 PM ET · PNC Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on 2026-05-15. Predicted final score: Philadelphia Phillies 3.17, Pittsburgh Pirates 5.21. Model win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 71%, Philadelphia Phillies 29%. Projected total runs: 8.37.
Philadelphia Phillies
3.2
Predicted runs
29% to win
Pittsburgh Pirates
5.2
Predicted runs
71% to win
Projected total: 8.4 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.