Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
2026-05-16 · PNC Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on 2026-05-16. Predicted final score: Philadelphia Phillies 3.97, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.77. Model win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 57%, Philadelphia Phillies 43%. Projected total runs: 8.74.
Philadelphia Phillies
4.0
Predicted runs
43% to win
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.8
Predicted runs
57% to win
Projected total: 8.7 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.