Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
2026-05-12 · Fenway Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on 2026-05-12. Predicted final score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.3, Boston Red Sox 4.19. Model win probability: Boston Red Sox 41%, Philadelphia Phillies 59%. Projected total runs: 9.49.
Philadelphia Phillies
5.3
Predicted runs
59% to win
Boston Red Sox
4.2
Predicted runs
41% to win
Projected total: 9.5 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.