Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
2026-05-14 · 06:45 PM ET · Fenway Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on 2026-05-14. Predicted final score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.38, Boston Red Sox 5.06. Model win probability: Boston Red Sox 48%, Philadelphia Phillies 52%. Projected total runs: 10.44.
Philadelphia Phillies
5.4
Predicted runs
52% to win
Boston Red Sox
5.1
Predicted runs
48% to win
Projected total: 10.4 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.