Mongoose Bets logo - Advanced MLB Analytics and Betting Intelligence platform
Mongoose Bets

Odds updated 8:38 PM ET

Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds

2026-07-09 · Great American Ball Park

Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on 2026-07-09. Predicted final score: Philadelphia Phillies 6.13, Cincinnati Reds 4.7. Model win probability: Cincinnati Reds 38%, Philadelphia Phillies 62%. Projected total runs: 10.82.

Philadelphia Phillies
6.1
Predicted runs
62% to win
Cincinnati Reds
4.7
Predicted runs
38% to win
Projected total: 10.8 runs

Tonight's Edges

Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.