Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays
2026-05-22 · Rogers Centre
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Pittsburgh Pirates at Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on 2026-05-22. Predicted final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.05, Toronto Blue Jays 3.45. Model win probability: Toronto Blue Jays 44%, Pittsburgh Pirates 56%. Projected total runs: 7.51.
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.0
Predicted runs
56% to win
Toronto Blue Jays
3.5
Predicted runs
44% to win
Projected total: 7.5 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.