Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays
2026-05-23 · Rogers Centre
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Pittsburgh Pirates at Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on 2026-05-23. Predicted final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.44, Toronto Blue Jays 2.24. Model win probability: Toronto Blue Jays 35%, Pittsburgh Pirates 65%. Projected total runs: 5.69.
Pittsburgh Pirates
3.4
Predicted runs
65% to win
Toronto Blue Jays
2.2
Predicted runs
35% to win
Projected total: 5.7 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.