Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
2026-08-04 · American Family Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on 2026-08-04. Predicted final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.49, Milwaukee Brewers 4.54. Model win probability: Milwaukee Brewers 52%, Pittsburgh Pirates 48%. Projected total runs: 9.03.
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.5
Predicted runs
48% to win
Milwaukee Brewers
4.5
Predicted runs
52% to win
Projected total: 9.0 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.