Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
2026-05-21 · Busch Stadium
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on 2026-05-21. Predicted final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 5.45, St. Louis Cardinals 3.88. Model win probability: St. Louis Cardinals 36%, Pittsburgh Pirates 64%. Projected total runs: 9.33.
Pittsburgh Pirates
5.5
Predicted runs
64% to win
St. Louis Cardinals
3.9
Predicted runs
36% to win
Projected total: 9.3 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.