Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks
2026-05-05 · Chase Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on 2026-05-05. Predicted final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 5.2, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.45. Model win probability: Arizona Diamondbacks 53%, Pittsburgh Pirates 47%. Projected total runs: 10.65.
Pittsburgh Pirates
5.2
Predicted runs
47% to win
Arizona Diamondbacks
5.5
Predicted runs
53% to win
Projected total: 10.7 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.