Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks
2026-05-06 · Chase Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on 2026-05-06. Predicted final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 5.34, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.37. Model win probability: Arizona Diamondbacks 42%, Pittsburgh Pirates 58%. Projected total runs: 9.71.
Pittsburgh Pirates
5.3
Predicted runs
58% to win
Arizona Diamondbacks
4.4
Predicted runs
42% to win
Projected total: 9.7 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.