Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians
2026-07-19 · Progressive Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on 2026-07-19. Predicted final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.32, Cleveland Guardians 3.51. Model win probability: Cleveland Guardians 41%, Pittsburgh Pirates 59%. Projected total runs: 7.84.
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.3
Predicted runs
59% to win
Cleveland Guardians
3.5
Predicted runs
41% to win
Projected total: 7.8 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.