Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins
2026-08-11 · loanDepot park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on 2026-08-11. Predicted final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.62, Miami Marlins 4.42. Model win probability: Miami Marlins 48%, Pittsburgh Pirates 52%. Projected total runs: 9.05.
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.6
Predicted runs
52% to win
Miami Marlins
4.4
Predicted runs
48% to win
Projected total: 9.1 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.