Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
2026-07-03 · 06:45 PM ET · Nationals Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on 2026-07-03. Predicted final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 5.17, Washington Nationals 4.47. Model win probability: Washington Nationals 45%, Pittsburgh Pirates 55%. Projected total runs: 9.65.
Pittsburgh Pirates
5.2
Predicted runs
55% to win
Washington Nationals
4.5
Predicted runs
45% to win
Projected total: 9.7 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.