Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on 2026-07-05. Predicted final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 5.8, Washington Nationals 4.9. Model win probability: Washington Nationals 42%, Pittsburgh Pirates 58%. Projected total runs: 10.7.

Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.