Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
2026-08-25 · Petco Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres at Petco Park on 2026-08-25. Predicted final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 5.05, San Diego Padres 4.2. Model win probability: San Diego Padres 41%, Pittsburgh Pirates 59%. Projected total runs: 9.25.
Pittsburgh Pirates
5.0
Predicted runs
59% to win
San Diego Padres
4.2
Predicted runs
41% to win
Projected total: 9.3 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.