Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
2026-06-30 · Citizens Bank Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on 2026-06-30. Predicted final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.05, Philadelphia Phillies 4.31. Model win probability: Philadelphia Phillies 52%, Pittsburgh Pirates 48%. Projected total runs: 8.37.
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.0
Predicted runs
48% to win
Philadelphia Phillies
4.3
Predicted runs
52% to win
Projected total: 8.4 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.