Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
2026-07-01 · 06:40 PM ET · Citizens Bank Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on 2026-07-01. Predicted final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.24, Philadelphia Phillies 3.52. Model win probability: Philadelphia Phillies 43%, Pittsburgh Pirates 57%. Projected total runs: 7.76.
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.2
Predicted runs
57% to win
Philadelphia Phillies
3.5
Predicted runs
43% to win
Projected total: 7.8 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.