Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
2026-07-02 · 12:35 PM ET · Citizens Bank Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on 2026-07-02. Predicted final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.75, Philadelphia Phillies 4.39. Model win probability: Philadelphia Phillies 47%, Pittsburgh Pirates 53%. Projected total runs: 9.14.
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.8
Predicted runs
53% to win
Philadelphia Phillies
4.4
Predicted runs
47% to win
Projected total: 9.1 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.