Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
2026-08-02 · Great American Ball Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on 2026-08-02. Predicted final score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.15, Cincinnati Reds 4.41. Model win probability: Cincinnati Reds 54%, Pittsburgh Pirates 46%. Projected total runs: 8.56.
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.2
Predicted runs
46% to win
Cincinnati Reds
4.4
Predicted runs
54% to win
Projected total: 8.6 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.