Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros
2026-07-04 · Daikin Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros at Daikin Park on 2026-07-04. Predicted final score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.9, Houston Astros 3.83. Model win probability: Houston Astros 40%, Tampa Bay Rays 60%. Projected total runs: 8.73.
Tampa Bay Rays
4.9
Predicted runs
60% to win
Houston Astros
3.8
Predicted runs
40% to win
Projected total: 8.7 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.