Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
2026-05-11 · 07:07 PM ET · Rogers Centre
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on 2026-05-11. Predicted final score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.35, Toronto Blue Jays 3.59. Model win probability: Toronto Blue Jays 54%, Tampa Bay Rays 46%. Projected total runs: 6.94.
Tampa Bay Rays
3.4
Predicted runs
46% to win
Toronto Blue Jays
3.6
Predicted runs
54% to win
Projected total: 6.9 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.