Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
2026-04-28 · 06:10 PM ET · Progressive Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on 2026-04-28. Predicted final score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.92, Cleveland Guardians 6.02. Model win probability: Cleveland Guardians 60%, Tampa Bay Rays 40%. Projected total runs: 10.94.
Tampa Bay Rays
4.9
Predicted runs
40% to win
Cleveland Guardians
6.0
Predicted runs
60% to win
Projected total: 10.9 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.