Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
2026-08-22 · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on 2026-08-22. Predicted final score: Tampa Bay Rays 5.27, Baltimore Orioles 4.48. Model win probability: Baltimore Orioles 43%, Tampa Bay Rays 57%. Projected total runs: 9.75.
Tampa Bay Rays
5.3
Predicted runs
57% to win
Baltimore Orioles
4.5
Predicted runs
43% to win
Projected total: 9.8 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.