Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
2026-05-07 · 07:10 PM ET · Fenway Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on 2026-05-07. Predicted final score: Tampa Bay Rays 5.97, Boston Red Sox 4.23. Model win probability: Boston Red Sox 34%, Tampa Bay Rays 66%. Projected total runs: 10.21.
Tampa Bay Rays
6.0
Predicted runs
66% to win
Boston Red Sox
4.2
Predicted runs
34% to win
Projected total: 10.2 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.