Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
2026-05-08 · 07:10 PM ET · Fenway Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on 2026-05-08. Predicted final score: Tampa Bay Rays 5.53, Boston Red Sox 4.75. Model win probability: Boston Red Sox 45%, Tampa Bay Rays 55%. Projected total runs: 10.28.
Tampa Bay Rays
5.5
Predicted runs
55% to win
Boston Red Sox
4.8
Predicted runs
45% to win
Projected total: 10.3 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.