Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
2026-05-09 · 04:10 PM ET · Fenway Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on 2026-05-09. Predicted final score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.54, Boston Red Sox 3.51. Model win probability: Boston Red Sox 50%, Tampa Bay Rays 50%. Projected total runs: 7.05.
Tampa Bay Rays
3.5
Predicted runs
50% to win
Boston Red Sox
3.5
Predicted runs
50% to win
Projected total: 7.0 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.