Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
2026-05-10 · Fenway Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on 2026-05-10. Predicted final score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.9, Boston Red Sox 3.67. Model win probability: Boston Red Sox 48%, Tampa Bay Rays 52%. Projected total runs: 7.57.
Tampa Bay Rays
3.9
Predicted runs
52% to win
Boston Red Sox
3.7
Predicted runs
48% to win
Projected total: 7.6 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.
