Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
2026-07-17 · 01:35 PM ET · Fenway Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on 2026-07-17. Predicted final score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.79, Boston Red Sox 4.49. Model win probability: Boston Red Sox 58%, Tampa Bay Rays 42%. Projected total runs: 8.28.
Tampa Bay Rays
3.8
Predicted runs
42% to win
Boston Red Sox
4.5
Predicted runs
58% to win
Projected total: 8.3 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.