Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
2026-05-30 · Progressive Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on 2026-05-30. Predicted final score: Boston Red Sox 2.83, Cleveland Guardians 3.95. Model win probability: Cleveland Guardians 64%, Boston Red Sox 36%. Projected total runs: 6.78.
Boston Red Sox
2.8
Predicted runs
36% to win
Cleveland Guardians
4.0
Predicted runs
64% to win
Projected total: 6.8 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.