Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets
2026-07-11 · Citi Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Boston Red Sox at New York Mets at Citi Field on 2026-07-11. Predicted final score: Boston Red Sox 4.17, New York Mets 4.33. Model win probability: New York Mets 51%, Boston Red Sox 49%. Projected total runs: 8.5.
Boston Red Sox
4.2
Predicted runs
49% to win
New York Mets
4.3
Predicted runs
51% to win
Projected total: 8.5 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.