Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets
2026-07-12 · Citi Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Boston Red Sox at New York Mets at Citi Field on 2026-07-12. Predicted final score: Boston Red Sox 4.4, New York Mets 3.57. Model win probability: New York Mets 42%, Boston Red Sox 58%. Projected total runs: 7.97.
Boston Red Sox
4.4
Predicted runs
58% to win
New York Mets
3.6
Predicted runs
42% to win
Projected total: 8.0 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.