Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates
2026-08-14 · PNC Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on 2026-08-14. Predicted final score: Boston Red Sox 5.42, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.04. Model win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 37%, Boston Red Sox 63%. Projected total runs: 9.45.
Boston Red Sox
5.4
Predicted runs
63% to win
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.0
Predicted runs
37% to win
Projected total: 9.4 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.