Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
2026-05-04 · Wrigley Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on 2026-05-04. Predicted final score: Cincinnati Reds 5.39, Chicago Cubs 5.45. Model win probability: Chicago Cubs 52%, Cincinnati Reds 48%. Projected total runs: 10.85.
Cincinnati Reds
5.4
Predicted runs
48% to win
Chicago Cubs
5.5
Predicted runs
52% to win
Projected total: 10.8 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.