Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks
2026-08-21 · Chase Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on 2026-08-21. Predicted final score: Cincinnati Reds 4.51, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.15. Model win probability: Arizona Diamondbacks 58%, Cincinnati Reds 42%. Projected total runs: 9.66.
Cincinnati Reds
4.5
Predicted runs
42% to win
Arizona Diamondbacks
5.2
Predicted runs
58% to win
Projected total: 9.7 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.