Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks
2026-08-22 · Chase Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on 2026-08-22. Predicted final score: Cincinnati Reds 4.4, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.35. Model win probability: Arizona Diamondbacks 61%, Cincinnati Reds 39%. Projected total runs: 9.75.
Cincinnati Reds
4.4
Predicted runs
39% to win
Arizona Diamondbacks
5.3
Predicted runs
61% to win
Projected total: 9.8 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.