Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians
2026-05-16 · 06:10 PM ET · Progressive Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on 2026-05-16. Predicted final score: Cincinnati Reds 3.86, Cleveland Guardians 3.03. Model win probability: Cleveland Guardians 40%, Cincinnati Reds 60%. Projected total runs: 6.89.
Cincinnati Reds
3.9
Predicted runs
60% to win
Cleveland Guardians
3.0
Predicted runs
40% to win
Projected total: 6.9 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.