Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians
2026-05-17 · Progressive Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on 2026-05-17. Predicted final score: Cincinnati Reds 3.52, Cleveland Guardians 3.24. Model win probability: Cleveland Guardians 48%, Cincinnati Reds 52%. Projected total runs: 6.76.
Cincinnati Reds
3.5
Predicted runs
52% to win
Cleveland Guardians
3.2
Predicted runs
48% to win
Projected total: 6.8 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.