Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
2026-05-18 · Citizens Bank Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on 2026-05-18. Predicted final score: Cincinnati Reds 7.39, Philadelphia Phillies 3.51. Model win probability: Philadelphia Phillies 19%, Cincinnati Reds 81%. Projected total runs: 10.9.
Cincinnati Reds
7.4
Predicted runs
81% to win
Philadelphia Phillies
3.5
Predicted runs
19% to win
Projected total: 10.9 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.