Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
2026-05-01 · PNC Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on 2026-05-01. Predicted final score: Cincinnati Reds 5.44, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.74. Model win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 45%, Cincinnati Reds 55%. Projected total runs: 10.19.
Cincinnati Reds
5.4
Predicted runs
55% to win
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.7
Predicted runs
45% to win
Projected total: 10.2 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.