Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
2026-05-02 · PNC Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on 2026-05-02. Predicted final score: Cincinnati Reds 5.39, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.25. Model win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 39%, Cincinnati Reds 61%. Projected total runs: 9.64.
Cincinnati Reds
5.4
Predicted runs
61% to win
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.3
Predicted runs
39% to win
Projected total: 9.6 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.