Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
2026-05-03 · PNC Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on 2026-05-03. Predicted final score: Cincinnati Reds 4.64, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.52. Model win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 49%, Cincinnati Reds 51%. Projected total runs: 9.16.
Cincinnati Reds
4.6
Predicted runs
51% to win
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.5
Predicted runs
49% to win
Projected total: 9.2 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.