Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
2026-06-28 · PNC Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on 2026-06-28. Predicted final score: Cincinnati Reds 3.77, Pittsburgh Pirates 5.38. Model win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 65%, Cincinnati Reds 35%. Projected total runs: 9.15.
Cincinnati Reds
3.8
Predicted runs
35% to win
Pittsburgh Pirates
5.4
Predicted runs
65% to win
Projected total: 9.2 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.